This is a synopsis of the report on Collective Wisdom, an innovation-research project carried out by Mark Abouzeid in collaboration with Carmen Ciciriello between 2003 and 2004. It investigates the potential for identifying disruptive innovation as it develops at the microscopic level using human behaviour as a primary signal.
Technology Adoption Lifecycle Analysis (TALC)
New technology presents risk for many customers. They react differently toward this risk based on their innate characteristics, the wants and needs of their companies, and the behaviour of other buyers. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle (TALC) models how different groups of customers adopt to discontinuous innovation at different times. This model helps policy makers and technology developers build the best strategy for each phase of a product’s life. Continue reading
All efforts, to date, overlook the prime, leading indicator of new markets, trends, innovations and technologies…changing human behaviour…the driving force.
Intuitively, most of us understand that 90+% of everything we do is habitual. Every day we repeat the same actions, thoughts, interactions, conversations and activities.
When we do CHANGE our habitual BEHAVIOUR, we provide a clear signal that something different is happening: that we have interest, intent or involvement in something new. When enough people change their behaviour, a new market is born. Continue reading
Most companies acknowledge a need for market knowledge and try to automate the process of intelligence gathering. They digest as much data existing internally, via clients and suppliers, and on the internet in the faint hope that new opportunities will become self-evident.
On the surface, at least, these efforts make intuitive sense. The Internet is an ongoing conversation, it represents a living and growing memory of the human condition. We record lives, research new frontiers, build businesses, watch children grow….innovate, evolve and die..on the Internet. Continue reading
“Companies are increasingly looking beyond their boundaries for help with innovation – working with customers, research companies, business partners and universities, and even competitors.
Businesses today are using external sources for all phases of innovation, from discovery and development to commercialization and even product maintenance.
Unfortunately, despite the growing acceptance of external innovation, many companies lack a sourcing strategy to guide them in managing it. They often take an ad hoc approach that produces uneven results, the very problem they are trying to avoid.
Instead of dealing with external sources one by one, companies should systematically examine and rationalize the increasingly important activity of innovation sourcing.”
Originally conceived by Mark Abouzeid, Collective Wisdom applies technology, behavioral dynamics, micro-blog harvesting and market profile models to the principles of chaos and complexity theory to solve the greatest problem facing corporations today:
How can market disrupting innovation by spotted early enough to put effective strategies in place that exploit new opportunities and defend against threats.
While historically this has proved impossible, Abouzeid believes the answer lies in the Internet: a universal mirror for what we think, want, explore and need.
He is working with companies, agencies, scientists and venture capitalists to help better understand the dynamics of innovation, where it is most likely to develop and the threats and opportunities it poses.Originally published September 2002 by Mark Abouzeid. Copyright 2002, all rights reserved.
Few people realize that the Internet is one massive focus group, all expressing their likes, wants, desires, opinions and ideas. If it were possible to watch, listen, and learn from all this activity; to follow the changes in behaviour and relationships; then companies might be able to pinpoint shifting market landscapes, product trends and disruptive change before its too late. However, sifting through the mountains of information to find something that you don’t even know you are looking for is virtually impossible…or is it? Continue reading
Originally published on the European eBusiness Lab website:
The Lab, with the assistance of Mark Abouzeid, completed an extensive study that shed light on the potential benefits of invoicing and payment automation, presenting a roadmap for the Region of Puglia which identified the advantages of such developments starting from a single company, to its supply chain and, finally, to the whole regional economy. Continue reading
1 the internet reflects the thoughts, behaviour, ideas, opinions, desires and activities of a valid sample of the world population.
2 it is universally relevant and will become more so over time. 1/3 of all users are from lesser developed countries providing greater insight than ever possible prior into these countries.
3 new interests, ideas and innovation appear in this media, real-time
4 by watching human behaviour (search patterns) we can identify weak signals that are the early warning radar blips for new disruptive innovation, trends and ultimately, new markets.
5 current technologies are unable to accurately discern these weak signals because they generally attempt to digest with increasing depth, breadth and insight the entire mass of data (content rather than behaviour)
6 by observing human behaviour patterns we can more easily see weak signals represented by changes in habitual behaviour
7 changes in search term/subject volume is a leading indicator of weak signals when captured at the microscopic level,
8 qualification of possible weak signal involves triangulation of leading indicators with usage frequency distributions of raw information sources..,newsgroups, blogs, etc.
9 using algorithms from financial trading systems, effective trend analysis can help point out which are real signals and which are merely anomalies
10 once a weak signal is identified accurately, deep mining and text analytics can be precisely targeted to observe and truly understand the new market, innovation or behaviour pattern
11 this analysis will be more accurate than other market research because it involves watching the petri dish without participants knowledge…in effect being able to read their intentions and desires.