This is a synopsis of the report on Collective Wisdom, an innovation-research project carried out by Mark Abouzeid in collaboration with Carmen Ciciriello between 2003 and 2004. It investigates the potential for identifying disruptive innovation as it develops at the microscopic level using human behaviour as a primary signal.
1 the internet reflects the thoughts, behaviour, ideas, opinions, desires and activities of a valid sample of the world population.
2 it is universally relevant and will become more so over time. 1/3 of all users are from lesser developed countries providing greater insight than ever possible prior into these countries.
3 new interests, ideas and innovation appear in this media, real-time
4 by watching human behaviour (search patterns) we can identify weak signals that are the early warning radar blips for new disruptive innovation, trends and ultimately, new markets.
5 current technologies are unable to accurately discern these weak signals because they generally attempt to digest with increasing depth, breadth and insight the entire mass of data (content rather than behaviour)
6 by observing human behaviour patterns we can more easily see weak signals represented by changes in habitual behaviour
7 changes in search term/subject volume is a leading indicator of weak signals when captured at the microscopic level,
8 qualification of possible weak signal involves triangulation of leading indicators with usage frequency distributions of raw information sources..,newsgroups, blogs, etc.
9 using algorithms from financial trading systems, effective trend analysis can help point out which are real signals and which are merely anomalies
10 once a weak signal is identified accurately, deep mining and text analytics can be precisely targeted to observe and truly understand the new market, innovation or behaviour pattern
11 this analysis will be more accurate than other market research because it involves watching the petri dish without participants knowledge…in effect being able to read their intentions and desires.