All efforts, to date, overlook the prime, leading indicator of new markets, trends, innovations and technologies…changing human behaviour…the driving force.
Intuitively, most of us understand that 90+% of everything we do is habitual. Every day we repeat the same actions, thoughts, interactions, conversations and activities.
When we do CHANGE our habitual BEHAVIOUR, we provide a clear signal that something different is happening: that we have interest, intent or involvement in something new. When enough people change their behaviour, a new market is born.
Focusing on that sociological dynamic, it becomes possible to identify disruptive innovation and fads at inception; no matter where they surface, no matter how microscopic.
We start by watching how people are interacting, by watching habitual behaviour. We focus on the anomalies, the divergent behaviour…and when these anomalies begin to display patterns, reflect mass, we dive in…we now know the question to ask, where to look…we have found a glowing needle in the haystack.
Finding and acknowledging weak signals is what Collective Wisdom is all about. Understanding when disruptive change becomes a reality is “Innovating in Chaos”.
Change is all we need to know. In steady-state equilibrium, all players know their role and competitive position. Disruptive innovation has the power to change all of that. To exploit new market opportunities, we need to know when change is inevitable, from where it will come and how best to address it.
Current search and microblog harvesting technologies are time insensitive and therefore useless in this exercise. They provide us with a solution set based on the entire database of information at the point in time the query is made, regardless if 95% has not changed since yesterday. State of art algorithms do attribute a freshness factor but only as it relates to entire pages or granularity of index terms and links.
We need to know how the CONCEPT MAP is changing as a reflection of directional change in HUMAN INTENT. Armed with that knowledge, we can pre-emptively plan effective strategies and act with stealth when the time is right. We can know the factors for success, the decision dynamics of new consumers and the gatekeepers to entry.